Tourism has finally recovered to pre-COVID levels. 2023 should end with a record 445.3 million overnight stays in accommodation facilities. This is an increase of +8.1% year-on-year and the first time it has exceeded the pre-pandemic period. In fact, in 2019, tourist stays stood at 436.7 million, about 8.6 million less. This was estimated by the Florence Tourism Research Center (Assoturismo Confesercenti), which derived the first final balance for the tourism year 2023, which is largely due to the significant increase in foreign tourists, who still drive demand, contributing to exceed 2019, with foreign admissions recorded +13.7%. In absolute terms, by 2022 it has exceeded 228.5 million (2019: 220.6 million). The Italian market performed less strongly, recording a year-on-year increase of +2.8% to a total of 216.8 million overnight stays (2019: 216 million). Hotels and non-hotel accommodation. The movement of guests in hotel establishments is estimated to grow by +9.3% with 276.2 million tourists, while non-hotel accommodation is estimated to remain at +6.1% with 169.1 million overnight stays. A difficult and multi-speed recovery. The South and Islands is the region that ends the year with the lowest growth value of +4.4%. In addition, the Northeast (+7%) also recorded an increase below the national average, unlike the Northwest (+11.7%) and the Centre (+10.4%), where the estimates show an increase of more than 2 percentage points compared to the average.
The most popular types of holidays. Overall, tourist demand increased in all product areas. However, among the most rated accommodation in 2023, accommodation in cities/art centers (+11.4%) and mountain areas (+11.1%) took the top spots in the ranking. Equally positive estimates are obtained for structures active in countryside/hilly areas (+10.3%) and thermal springs (+10.2%). In addition, lake locations (+9.6%) and “other interests” (+9%) also performed well. The seaside sector has slowed down throughout the year, in fact, the estimate reports the lowest tourist growth (+3%), due in particular to the decline in demand from Italy.
Forecast for 2024. Some uncertainties emerge when it comes to forecasts for the hospitality business in the first quarter of 2024. In fact, for 59.6% of interviewed respondents, the first half of the year should show a stable trend (the average growth in demand in the first quarter of 2023 reached +30%). However, 19.7% expect an increase in tourist numbers, and about 20.7% expect an eventual decrease in tourist numbers. The biggest concerns are expressed by entrepreneurs operating on the seaside, in the countryside and in hilly areas. However, a bit more optimism emerges from companies based in cities and art centers. Geopolitical instability, slowing economic growth in the eurozone and inflation still affect the economic recovery next year.
“After three very long years, tourism is finally recovering pre-pandemic levels, thanks in part to the increase in foreign tourists. The demonstration that promotion on foreign markets is fundamental is at the same time a positive signal and a good impression. We look forward to the new year,” comments Vittorio Messina, President of Assoturismo Confecenti. “Tourism has once again shown its resilience and its ability to be a driving force for the economy of the entire country, but it must continue to be supported. Also, the recovery in tourist numbers compared to before the pandemic is happening in changing and all sorts of circumstances. “The case is facing a difficult situation for companies, starting from the uncertainty of domestic demand caused by increasing monetary costs and the erosion of purchasing power. ”
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